000 WTNT80 EGRR 240418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.10.2015 HURRICANE OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 146.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.10.2015 17.0N 146.3W MODERATE 12UTC 24.10.2015 17.9N 145.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2015 18.6N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 19.5N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 20.1N 143.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 20.5N 143.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2015 20.9N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 20.7N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 20.5N 145.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2015 20.2N 148.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2015 20.8N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2015 22.4N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE PATRICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 104.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.10.2015 19.4N 104.9W MODERATE 12UTC 24.10.2015 23.8N 106.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 29.1N 61.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.10.2015 29.1N 61.8W WEAK 12UTC 24.10.2015 31.1N 59.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2015 31.3N 59.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 32.7N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 35.9N 57.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 28.5N 96.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 28.5N 96.4W WEAK 00UTC 26.10.2015 29.7N 94.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2015 29.4N 94.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 29.5N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 30.8N 91.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.2N 126.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2015 11.6N 126.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2015 12.7N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 13.5N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 14.0N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 14.6N 130.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2015 14.7N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.10.2015 14.8N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.10.2015 14.4N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.10.2015 14.2N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240418