000
WTNT80 EGRR 191617

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.11.2015

        TROPICAL STORM 21E        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 106.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212015

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 19.11.2015  14.5N 106.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 20.11.2015  15.7N 108.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.11.2015  16.1N 110.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 21.11.2015  16.6N 111.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2015  16.6N 112.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2015  16.7N 113.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.11.2015  17.2N 113.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.11.2015  18.4N 113.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.11.2015  19.7N 114.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.11.2015  21.2N 114.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2015  22.5N 114.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.11.2015  23.6N 114.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.11.2015  24.8N 112.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 30.1N  80.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 22.11.2015  30.1N  80.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 23.11.2015  32.7N  76.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.11.2015  40.0N  69.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 24.11.2015  48.6N  62.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2015  50.8N  60.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.11.2015  POST-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 :  9.9N  96.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 24.11.2015   9.9N  97.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 24.11.2015  10.2N  99.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.11.2015  10.2N 101.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.11.2015  10.7N 104.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 191617