000
WTNT80 EGRR 210417

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.11.2015

        TROPICAL STORM RICK       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 112.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212015

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 21.11.2015  16.4N 112.3W     WEAK
 12UTC 21.11.2015  16.7N 114.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2015  17.2N 115.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.11.2015  18.0N 117.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.11.2015  18.9N 118.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.11.2015  20.0N 119.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.11.2015  20.7N 118.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2015  21.3N 118.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.11.2015  21.7N 118.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 31.8N  78.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 22.11.2015  31.8N  78.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 23.11.2015  36.2N  72.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 23.11.2015  43.8N  65.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.11.2015  53.1N  56.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 28.3N  78.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 23.11.2015  28.3N  78.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 23.11.2015  30.2N  72.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.11.2015  33.7N  66.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2015  37.7N  59.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 25.11.2015        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.2N  98.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 24.11.2015  10.6N  99.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 24.11.2015  11.9N 101.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 25.11.2015  13.1N 103.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 25.11.2015  14.2N 105.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.11.2015  15.5N 105.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.11.2015  16.5N 105.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.11.2015  17.2N 106.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 210417