000 WTNT80 EGRR 030418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.08.2016 TROPICAL STORM EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 82.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2016 16.1N 82.2W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2016 16.3N 84.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2016 16.8N 86.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2016 17.0N 89.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2016 17.5N 92.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2016 16.1N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 130.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2016 19.8N 130.8W MODERATE 12UTC 03.08.2016 20.8N 133.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2016 21.3N 136.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2016 21.4N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2016 21.5N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2016 21.6N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2016 21.7N 148.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2016 21.5N 151.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 117.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2016 13.7N 117.3W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2016 14.0N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2016 14.7N 123.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2016 15.3N 126.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2016 15.6N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2016 15.6N 132.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2016 15.8N 135.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2016 15.9N 137.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2016 16.3N 139.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2016 16.7N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2016 17.2N 143.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2016 17.7N 144.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2016 18.1N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 33.9N 74.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2016 34.2N 73.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.08.2016 34.9N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2016 35.2N 68.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2016 36.1N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2016 36.6N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2016 38.5N 62.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2016 39.9N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2016 42.1N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2016 46.3N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2016 51.6N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.7N 102.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.08.2016 17.7N 102.6W WEAK 00UTC 07.08.2016 18.1N 103.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2016 18.4N 105.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2016 19.5N 106.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2016 19.8N 107.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2016 20.0N 107.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 34.1N 42.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.08.2016 34.1N 42.0W WEAK 12UTC 07.08.2016 37.0N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2016 38.5N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2016 40.6N 43.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2016 43.5N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030417