000
WTNT80 EGRR 110419

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.09.2016

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 114.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 11.09.2016  13.6N 114.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 11.09.2016  15.3N 116.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2016  16.7N 118.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.09.2016  17.8N 119.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.09.2016  18.7N 120.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.09.2016  19.7N 119.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.09.2016  20.5N 119.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.09.2016  20.6N 119.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.09.2016  20.3N 120.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.09.2016  19.7N 121.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.09.2016  18.9N 123.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.09.2016  18.5N 125.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.09.2016  17.8N 127.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.6N  46.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 11.09.2016  14.6N  46.1W     WEAK
 12UTC 11.09.2016  16.6N  46.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2016  19.5N  48.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.09.2016  20.8N  49.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.09.2016  22.6N  51.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.09.2016  24.5N  52.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.09.2016  26.2N  53.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.09.2016  29.0N  54.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.09.2016  31.2N  53.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.09.2016  34.2N  52.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.09.2016  37.8N  49.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.09.2016  42.1N  43.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.09.2016  47.1N  35.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.4N  29.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 14.09.2016  17.4N  29.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 15.09.2016  18.5N  31.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.09.2016  19.2N  33.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.09.2016  19.5N  36.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.09.2016  20.3N  39.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.09.2016  20.9N  41.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.4N 101.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.09.2016  13.8N 102.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.09.2016  15.2N 104.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.8N  17.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 17.09.2016  13.8N  17.1W   MODERATE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 110419