000 WTNT80 EGRR 130418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.09.2016 TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 51.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2016 23.2N 51.1W WEAK 12UTC 13.09.2016 25.3N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2016 27.2N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2016 30.0N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2016 32.3N 54.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2016 35.0N 53.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2016 38.3N 49.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2016 42.2N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2016 46.9N 35.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2016 50.2N 28.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2016 53.0N 21.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2016 POST-TROPICAL HURRICANE ORLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 119.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2016 18.6N 119.2W INTENSE 12UTC 13.09.2016 19.7N 119.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2016 20.5N 118.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2016 20.8N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2016 20.9N 119.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2016 20.8N 121.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2016 20.6N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 20.4N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 20.6N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 21.1N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 21.7N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 22.8N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 24.3N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 17.8N 30.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2016 17.6N 31.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.09.2016 17.8N 31.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2016 18.6N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2016 18.6N 33.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2016 19.0N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 19.5N 36.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2016 19.9N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2016 19.8N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.5N 103.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2016 14.5N 103.6W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2016 15.5N 105.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2016 16.4N 108.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2016 17.1N 110.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2016 17.8N 112.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.6N 18.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2016 12.9N 19.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2016 14.2N 21.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2016 15.1N 24.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2016 15.7N 26.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130418