000
WTNT80 EGRR 281618

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2016

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN     ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 115.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2016  20.5N 115.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.09.2016  21.6N 115.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE ULIKA      ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 139.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2016  14.2N 139.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.09.2016  15.0N 138.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2016  15.5N 139.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.09.2016  15.8N 139.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.09.2016  16.1N 140.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.10.2016  16.0N 142.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 13.8N  61.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 29.09.2016  14.1N  63.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 29.09.2016  14.3N  65.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.09.2016  14.2N  68.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.09.2016  13.4N  70.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.10.2016  13.1N  71.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2016  12.8N  72.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2016  12.8N  73.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2016  13.6N  74.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2016  15.2N  75.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.10.2016  17.2N  75.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.10.2016  19.0N  75.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2016  20.6N  75.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 17.0N 113.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.10.2016  17.0N 113.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 01.10.2016  18.0N 114.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2016  19.5N 115.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2016  20.5N 116.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2016  21.2N 117.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2016  21.5N 116.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2016  21.4N 115.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2016        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 17.0N 175.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.10.2016  17.4N 175.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2016  18.4N 177.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2016  18.4N 178.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 281618