000 WTNT80 EGRR 100418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2016 HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 35.3N 70.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2016 35.3N 70.8W MODERATE 12UTC 10.10.2016 37.4N 66.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 65.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2016 24.4N 65.0W STRONG 12UTC 10.10.2016 25.5N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2016 26.4N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2016 26.9N 66.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2016 27.2N 67.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 27.6N 67.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 29.2N 67.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2016 31.4N 66.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2016 34.2N 63.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2016 36.9N 60.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2016 39.6N 56.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2016 41.9N 53.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.10.2016 42.5N 52.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 100.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2016 11.0N 101.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.10.2016 12.3N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 13.6N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 14.5N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 15.3N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 15.8N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 16.0N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2016 16.3N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2016 16.4N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2016 16.6N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.8N 126.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2016 12.1N 126.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.10.2016 13.4N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2016 14.4N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 15.5N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 30.8N 37.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2016 30.3N 38.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2016 29.4N 38.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2016 29.5N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2016 30.0N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2016 29.6N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.3N 167.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2016 11.3N 168.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2016 12.2N 171.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2016 12.8N 173.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2016 13.3N 176.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2016 13.8N 178.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2016 14.3N 179.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.1N 163.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2016 11.6N 164.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2016 12.6N 167.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2016 13.3N 170.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2016 13.8N 173.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100418