000 WTNT80 EGRR 140419 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.10.2016 HURRICANE NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 62.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2016 34.2N 62.4W INTENSE 12UTC 14.10.2016 36.0N 58.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.10.2016 37.0N 54.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2016 38.3N 51.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.10.2016 38.6N 49.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2016 38.2N 48.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2016 38.5N 48.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2016 38.8N 48.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2016 39.7N 46.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2016 40.6N 43.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2016 41.4N 39.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.10.2016 42.5N 34.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2016 44.5N 30.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 8.0N 172.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2016 8.0N 172.3W WEAK 12UTC 16.10.2016 8.7N 175.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2016 9.3N 178.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2016 10.0N 178.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2016 10.4N 175.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2016 10.9N 172.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2016 11.4N 170.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2016 11.9N 168.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2016 12.4N 167.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.6N 126.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2016 14.6N 126.7W WEAK 00UTC 18.10.2016 14.4N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2016 14.2N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2016 13.9N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2016 13.8N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2016 13.9N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 23.2N 64.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.10.2016 24.4N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2016 26.7N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2016 28.7N 64.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140419