000
WTNT80 EGRR 151618

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2016

             HURRICANE NICOLE     ANALYSED POSITION : 38.6N  51.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152016

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.10.2016  38.6N  51.1W    STRONG
 00UTC 16.10.2016  39.0N  49.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.10.2016  38.8N  47.5W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.10.2016  39.5N  46.4W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.10.2016  40.7N  45.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.10.2016  43.0N  43.5W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 18.10.2016  46.5N  39.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.10.2016  52.7N  35.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.10.2016  POST-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.4N 126.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 17.10.2016  14.4N 126.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 17.10.2016  14.2N 127.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.10.2016  14.0N 128.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.10.2016  14.2N 129.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.10.2016  14.5N 131.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.10.2016  14.5N 132.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.10.2016  14.8N 133.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.10.2016  15.3N 134.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.10.2016  15.7N 135.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.10.2016  15.8N 137.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.0N  96.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 21.10.2016  13.0N  96.8W     WEAK


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 151618