000
WTNT80 EGRR 010406

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.09.2017

             HURRICANE IRMA       ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N  35.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.09.2017  17.4N  35.2W   INTENSE
 12UTC 01.09.2017  18.0N  37.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.09.2017  18.6N  39.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.09.2017  18.8N  42.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2017  18.6N  45.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2017  18.0N  47.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2017  17.2N  49.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 04.09.2017  16.8N  51.6W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2017  16.9N  53.6W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2017  17.4N  55.5W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2017  18.6N  57.6W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2017  20.0N  60.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2017  21.7N  62.3W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

        TROPICAL STORM LIDIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 110.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.09.2017  23.0N 110.4W   MODERATE
 12UTC 01.09.2017  24.1N 111.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.09.2017  25.9N 111.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.09.2017  28.0N 113.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2017  28.9N 114.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2017  30.0N 117.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2017  31.1N 119.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2017  31.4N 120.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.7N 133.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.09.2017  12.7N 133.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 01.09.2017  13.3N 132.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.09.2017  13.9N 131.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.09.2017  14.5N 130.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2017  15.4N 129.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2017  15.5N 128.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.4N  32.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.09.2017  11.4N  32.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 05.09.2017  12.0N  34.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2017  13.4N  35.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2017  13.9N  37.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2017  14.7N  40.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2017  15.4N  42.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.6N 152.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 05.09.2017  15.6N 152.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 05.09.2017  16.0N 153.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2017  15.8N 152.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 010406