000 WTNT80 EGRR 230408 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.09.2017 TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 39.7N 69.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2017 39.7N 69.2W MODERATE 12UTC 23.09.2017 39.1N 69.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 38.4N 68.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 38.7N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2017 39.2N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 49.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2017 31.0N 49.4W WEAK 12UTC 23.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 71.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2017 23.5N 71.9W INTENSE 12UTC 23.09.2017 25.0N 72.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 26.7N 72.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 28.6N 73.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2017 30.0N 73.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2017 31.1N 74.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2017 32.2N 74.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 33.7N 75.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2017 34.9N 75.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2017 35.8N 75.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2017 36.1N 73.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2017 36.7N 69.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.09.2017 40.3N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 18.3N 105.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2017 18.3N 105.9W WEAK 12UTC 23.09.2017 18.6N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 19.2N 106.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2017 19.8N 106.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2017 20.4N 106.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 20.7N 106.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 21.0N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 21.7N 106.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.3N 48.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2017 32.3N 48.9W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2017 31.9N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 30.9N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 30.1N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 29.7N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 30.0N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 30.9N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 32.2N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 34.2N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 18.1N 17.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2017 18.6N 18.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2017 20.2N 19.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 20.8N 20.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.3N 122.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2017 13.2N 121.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2017 13.6N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 13.7N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 13.8N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 13.9N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.2N 150.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2017 9.2N 150.2W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2017 9.5N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 10.5N 150.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230408