844 WTNT80 EGRR 041608 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.08.2018 HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 132.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2018 14.1N 132.1W INTENSE 00UTC 05.08.2018 14.2N 133.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2018 14.5N 136.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2018 15.0N 138.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2018 15.5N 141.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2018 16.1N 144.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2018 16.4N 148.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2018 16.6N 151.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2018 16.7N 154.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2018 17.0N 156.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2018 17.5N 159.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2018 17.8N 162.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2018 17.7N 165.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 36.6N 45.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2018 36.6N 45.2W WEAK 00UTC 05.08.2018 35.0N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2018 33.5N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2018 31.6N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2018 32.0N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2018 33.9N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2018 37.5N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2018 40.3N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2018 41.1N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2018 40.4N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2018 39.9N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2018 40.6N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2018 41.0N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.0N 96.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.08.2018 13.1N 98.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2018 13.8N 99.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2018 14.5N 101.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2018 15.3N 103.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2018 16.4N 105.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2018 18.1N 107.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2018 20.9N 110.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2018 22.8N 115.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2018 24.4N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2018 26.4N 122.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.5N 106.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.08.2018 14.5N 106.9W WEAK 00UTC 06.08.2018 15.2N 108.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2018 15.9N 110.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2018 16.6N 111.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2018 16.9N 112.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2018 17.2N 113.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2018 17.2N 114.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2018 17.8N 114.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2018 18.9N 115.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2018 20.0N 117.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2018 20.8N 119.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.1N 127.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.08.2018 14.2N 128.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2018 14.4N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2018 14.7N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2018 15.2N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2018 16.4N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2018 17.2N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041608