000
WTNT80 EGRR 281557

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.06.2019

        TROPICAL STORM ALVIN      ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 116.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.06.2019  18.8N 116.9W   MODERATE
 00UTC 29.06.2019  20.2N 118.6W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 29.06.2019  21.3N 119.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.06.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.8N 107.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 30.06.2019  11.3N 109.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.07.2019  12.1N 113.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.07.2019  12.7N 116.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.07.2019  13.2N 119.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.07.2019  13.9N 122.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.07.2019  14.2N 125.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.07.2019  14.2N 128.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.07.2019  14.5N 130.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.07.2019  14.8N 132.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 :  9.9N 135.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.07.2019  10.0N 136.2W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 02.07.2019  10.5N 137.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.07.2019  10.9N 138.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.07.2019  11.2N 139.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.07.2019  11.2N 141.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.07.2019  11.1N 142.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.07.2019  10.9N 143.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 :  9.7N  99.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.07.2019  10.3N 100.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.07.2019  11.1N 103.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 281557