734 WTNT80 EGRR 311556 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.07.2019 HURRICANE ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 146.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2019 14.2N 146.7W MODERATE 00UTC 01.08.2019 14.7N 148.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.08.2019 14.8N 151.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2019 15.1N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2019 15.3N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2019 15.6N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2019 16.1N 161.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2019 16.9N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2019 17.7N 165.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2019 18.6N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2019 19.3N 168.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2019 20.0N 169.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2019 20.8N 169.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE FLOSSIE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 125.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2019 13.3N 125.2W MODERATE 00UTC 01.08.2019 14.0N 128.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2019 14.7N 131.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2019 15.3N 134.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2019 15.8N 137.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2019 16.7N 140.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2019 17.2N 142.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2019 17.8N 145.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2019 18.3N 148.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2019 19.0N 151.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2019 20.0N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2019 21.4N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2019 23.2N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.1N 124.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2019 13.4N 125.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.08.2019 13.6N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2019 14.2N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2019 14.7N 130.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2019 14.8N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.0N 53.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2019 16.0N 53.4W WEAK 00UTC 05.08.2019 16.7N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2019 17.1N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2019 18.1N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2019 19.2N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 33.7N 75.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2019 33.7N 75.0W WEAK 00UTC 05.08.2019 35.2N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2019 36.3N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 311556