357 
WTNT80 EGRR 301600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.08.2019

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N  69.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 30.08.2019  24.2N  69.3W   MODERATE
 00UTC 31.08.2019  25.2N  71.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.08.2019  25.6N  72.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.09.2019  25.7N  74.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.09.2019  26.1N  75.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.09.2019  26.3N  76.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2019  26.4N  77.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.09.2019  26.4N  78.5W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2019  26.6N  79.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2019  27.8N  80.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  29.2N  81.6W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  30.8N  81.4W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  32.4N  79.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.8N 108.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.09.2019  13.4N 109.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2019  14.4N 111.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2019  15.3N 113.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2019  16.3N 114.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2019  16.9N 115.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  17.6N 116.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  18.5N 117.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  19.6N 119.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 19.9N  30.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.09.2019  19.4N  30.6W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  21.4N  29.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2019  21.6N  30.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  21.8N  32.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 301600