113 WTNT80 EGRR 281556 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2019 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 102.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2019 13.7N 102.9W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 44.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2019 21.9N 44.7W INTENSE 00UTC 29.09.2019 23.5N 44.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2019 25.0N 44.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2019 26.3N 44.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 27.6N 43.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2019 29.4N 42.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.10.2019 31.4N 41.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 33.9N 37.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 37.0N 33.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2019 40.0N 28.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.10.2019 42.9N 22.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2019 44.8N 15.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2019 46.7N 8.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.6N 101.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2019 16.6N 101.9W WEAK 00UTC 30.09.2019 18.5N 104.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 19.8N 106.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 21.6N 108.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2019 23.0N 110.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 25.2N 111.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 27.9N 111.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 142.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2019 12.5N 142.2W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2019 13.6N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 14.2N 141.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2019 15.7N 140.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2019 16.8N 139.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2019 17.1N 139.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2019 17.2N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2019 16.3N 142.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.5N 127.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2019 12.5N 126.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2019 12.0N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2019 12.9N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2019 13.6N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281556