831 
WTNT80 EGRR 160401

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.11.2019

        TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND    ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 109.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 16.11.2019  15.1N 109.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 16.11.2019  16.1N 110.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.11.2019  17.7N 110.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.11.2019  19.6N 109.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.11.2019  21.9N 109.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.11.2019  24.8N 109.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.11.2019  30.6N 112.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.11.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.6N  77.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 16.11.2019  32.6N  77.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 16.11.2019  31.1N  79.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.11.2019  30.9N  77.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.11.2019  31.7N  74.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.11.2019  33.1N  72.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.11.2019  36.9N  69.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.11.2019  43.1N  67.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 19.11.2019  46.6N  67.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.11.2019  49.0N  65.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 20.11.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 24.2N  62.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 21.11.2019  24.2N  62.7W     WEAK
 12UTC 21.11.2019  24.7N  60.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2019  24.7N  59.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 160401