602 WTNT80 EGRR 170359 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.11.2019 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 111.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.11.2019 17.0N 111.8W WEAK 12UTC 17.11.2019 18.9N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.11.2019 21.1N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2019 23.3N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 101.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.11.2019 9.6N 101.5W WEAK 12UTC 17.11.2019 10.2N 102.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.11.2019 11.1N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2019 11.7N 104.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.11.2019 12.0N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.11.2019 12.6N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2019 12.5N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2019 14.7N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2019 14.2N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.11.2019 14.8N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.4N 77.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.11.2019 30.4N 77.8W MODERATE 12UTC 17.11.2019 31.2N 74.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.11.2019 32.6N 73.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2019 36.7N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2019 41.7N 67.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2019 45.8N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2019 49.4N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2019 49.5N 63.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 33.9N 71.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.11.2019 33.9N 71.6W WEAK 12UTC 20.11.2019 39.4N 65.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.11.2019 43.0N 61.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.11.2019 46.4N 60.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2019 45.6N 57.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.6N 62.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.11.2019 23.6N 62.6W WEAK 00UTC 21.11.2019 25.0N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.11.2019 27.2N 59.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.11.2019 28.6N 55.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2019 31.2N 50.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.11.2019 34.2N 45.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170359