423 WTNT80 EGRR 110405 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.08.2020 HURRICANE ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 111.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.08.2020 19.8N 111.6W STRONG 12UTC 11.08.2020 21.1N 114.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2020 22.2N 117.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2020 22.8N 119.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.08.2020 23.8N 121.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2020 24.8N 121.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2020 25.9N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.7N 40.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.08.2020 12.7N 40.4W WEAK 12UTC 12.08.2020 13.0N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2020 13.5N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2020 14.4N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2020 15.7N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2020 16.7N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2020 17.6N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2020 18.2N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.5N 129.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2020 14.5N 129.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2020 14.1N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2020 13.4N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2020 12.6N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 12.5N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 13.3N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2020 14.2N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.4N 143.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.08.2020 13.6N 144.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2020 14.4N 146.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2020 14.4N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 14.5N 151.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 14.2N 154.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.2N 120.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2020 16.1N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 17.1N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 18.3N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2020 19.7N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 35.1N 74.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2020 35.1N 74.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.08.2020 35.3N 71.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 35.8N 67.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2020 40.6N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.3N 110.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2020 12.8N 109.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2020 12.5N 110.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.5N 177.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2020 11.5N 177.2W WEAK 00UTC 17.08.2020 12.0N 178.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.9N 96.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.08.2020 13.9N 96.9W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110405