819 
WTNT80 EGRR 041559

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.07.2021

        TROPICAL STORM ELSA       ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N  76.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.07.2021  18.6N  76.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 05.07.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 25.2N  84.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.07.2021  25.2N  84.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 07.07.2021  27.0N  84.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.07.2021  29.2N  83.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.07.2021  31.6N  82.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.07.2021  33.2N  80.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.07.2021  35.0N  76.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.07.2021  36.4N  72.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.07.2021  38.2N  68.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.07.2021  40.8N  62.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 041559