028 WTNT80 EGRR 050411 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM KAY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 104.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2022 15.3N 104.2W WEAK 12UTC 05.09.2022 15.9N 106.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2022 15.1N 108.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2022 16.9N 110.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2022 18.1N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2022 18.8N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2022 20.3N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2022 21.7N 116.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2022 23.1N 116.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 24.1N 117.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 24.9N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2022 26.0N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 27.0N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM EARL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 65.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2022 20.0N 65.2W WEAK 12UTC 05.09.2022 21.5N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2022 22.4N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2022 23.4N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2022 24.7N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2022 26.1N 65.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.09.2022 27.6N 66.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.09.2022 28.6N 66.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.09.2022 30.2N 65.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 31.7N 64.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 32.8N 62.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2022 33.4N 61.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 33.3N 61.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE DANIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.6N 45.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.09.2022 38.6N 45.0W MODERATE 12UTC 05.09.2022 39.7N 44.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.09.2022 41.1N 42.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2022 41.8N 41.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2022 42.2N 39.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2022 42.8N 36.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2022 43.9N 34.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2022 45.5N 31.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2022 47.7N 29.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.09.2022 49.9N 27.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.09.2022 52.6N 25.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2022 54.8N 25.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 53.5N 27.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 18.3N 39.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2022 18.3N 39.8W WEAK 00UTC 09.09.2022 18.9N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2022 20.9N 45.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 25.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2022 10.9N 25.0W WEAK 00UTC 10.09.2022 11.1N 29.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2022 11.6N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2022 12.5N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 11.8N 176.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2022 11.7N 176.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050411