246 WTNT80 EGRR 101612 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.10.2022 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 89.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182022 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2022 13.5N 89.4W WEAK 00UTC 11.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 38.1N 14.4E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2022 37.5N 15.2E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2022 37.2N 20.0E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2022 34.9N 23.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 34.9N 74.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2022 34.9N 74.4W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2022 37.4N 71.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2022 40.2N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2022 50.4N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2022 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 35.9N 31.7E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2022 35.8N 31.6E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2022 35.2N 31.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101612