363 WTNT80 EGRR 050410 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.10.2023 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 109.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2023 15.2N 109.0W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2023 15.5N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2023 15.8N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2023 15.5N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2023 15.5N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2023 15.4N 113.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2023 15.5N 114.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2023 15.3N 116.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2023 15.7N 117.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2023 16.1N 118.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2023 16.1N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2023 15.8N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2023 15.6N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2023 15.3N 117.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2023 15.8N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 66.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2023 22.7N 66.5W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2023 24.4N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2023 27.3N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 34.0N 70.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2023 34.0N 70.4W WEAK 12UTC 07.10.2023 37.9N 69.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2023 41.6N 68.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.7N 128.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2023 11.7N 128.5W WEAK 00UTC 08.10.2023 11.1N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2023 10.8N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2023 10.8N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2023 11.0N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2023 11.2N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2023 11.4N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2023 11.5N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2023 11.4N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2023 11.6N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.8N 105.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2023 15.8N 105.9W WEAK 00UTC 10.10.2023 15.8N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2023 15.3N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2023 14.8N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2023 15.0N 106.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2023 15.7N 106.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 37.0N 65.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2023 38.8N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2023 44.6N 60.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2023 48.8N 59.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2023 52.0N 58.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 11.9N 35.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2023 11.9N 35.4W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2023 12.5N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 31.4N 62.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2023 31.4N 62.8W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2023 31.9N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050410