440 WTNT80 EGRR 020410 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.08.2024 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 112.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.08.2024 17.8N 112.5W MODERATE 12UTC 02.08.2024 18.9N 115.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2024 19.2N 117.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2024 19.4N 120.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2024 19.5N 123.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2024 20.0N 125.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2024 20.0N 127.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2024 20.3N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2024 20.3N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2024 20.3N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2024 20.1N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2024 19.7N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 73.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.08.2024 19.3N 73.8W WEAK 12UTC 02.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 126.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.08.2024 13.0N 126.1W WEAK 12UTC 02.08.2024 12.7N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2024 12.4N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2024 12.0N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2024 12.3N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2024 13.1N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2024 14.8N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2024 17.0N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2024 18.3N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2024 19.5N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.0N 84.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2024 25.0N 84.7W WEAK 00UTC 05.08.2024 27.0N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2024 28.6N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2024 29.8N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2024 31.6N 82.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2024 31.1N 82.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2024 31.7N 80.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2024 32.7N 78.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2024 33.0N 77.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2024 33.9N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 14.5N 113.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.08.2024 14.8N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2024 14.4N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2024 15.1N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2024 15.9N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2024 16.2N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2024 17.2N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020410