407 
WTNT80 EGRR 130411

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.08.2024

        TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO    ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N  58.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 13.08.2024  16.1N  58.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 13.08.2024  17.0N  62.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.08.2024  18.3N  64.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.08.2024  20.2N  66.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.08.2024  22.6N  67.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.08.2024  24.8N  68.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.08.2024  26.5N  67.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2024  28.1N  65.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.08.2024  29.8N  63.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.08.2024  30.4N  63.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.08.2024  30.9N  63.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.08.2024  32.1N  63.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.08.2024  34.2N  63.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.08.2024  37.0N  63.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.08.2024  40.6N  60.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 36.5N  60.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 14.08.2024  36.5N  60.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 14.08.2024  38.4N  55.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.08.2024  40.2N  52.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.08.2024  43.5N  48.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.08.2024  45.4N  43.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.3N  60.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 16.08.2024  37.1N  58.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.08.2024  39.9N  56.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.08.2024  40.6N  52.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.08.2024  43.1N  45.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.08.2024  45.2N  35.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.08.2024  46.1N  27.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.08.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 14.1N 117.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 19.08.2024  14.1N 117.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 20.08.2024  14.3N 120.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 130411