159 
WTNT80 EGRR 151613

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.08.2024

             HURRICANE ERNESTO    ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N  69.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052024

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.08.2024  24.5N  69.1W    STRONG
 00UTC 16.08.2024  26.6N  68.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.08.2024  28.6N  67.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.08.2024  30.3N  66.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.08.2024  32.1N  65.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.08.2024  33.1N  65.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.08.2024  34.7N  65.2W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 19.08.2024  37.5N  64.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 19.08.2024  41.3N  61.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 20.08.2024  45.4N  56.0W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 20.08.2024  48.6N  47.6W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 21.08.2024  52.0N  38.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.08.2024  54.0N  27.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.08.2024  POST-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 34.7N  61.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 16.08.2024  36.3N  58.3W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 16.08.2024  38.3N  55.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.08.2024  40.2N  51.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.08.2024  42.5N  46.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.08.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.1N 136.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 21.08.2024  13.1N 136.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 21.08.2024  14.0N 138.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.08.2024  15.9N 140.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.08.2024  16.5N 144.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 151613