436 WTNT80 EGRR 041615 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2024 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.3N 70.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2024 33.3N 70.1W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2024 33.6N 69.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2024 34.1N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2024 35.0N 70.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2024 37.0N 68.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.09.2024 38.5N 67.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2024 40.9N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.09.2024 45.7N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2024 49.5N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 29.8N 88.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2024 29.8N 88.4W WEAK 00UTC 08.09.2024 29.7N 87.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2024 30.3N 86.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2024 30.7N 84.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2024 32.0N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.5N 42.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2024 12.5N 42.4W WEAK 12UTC 08.09.2024 13.4N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2024 14.7N 40.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2024 15.6N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2024 16.0N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2024 16.5N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2024 16.9N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2024 17.5N 46.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 37.5N 45.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.09.2024 37.5N 45.2W WEAK 12UTC 08.09.2024 36.6N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2024 36.0N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.7N 19.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2024 15.0N 21.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2024 15.8N 25.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2024 16.7N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 14.2N 147.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2024 14.2N 147.2W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2024 14.3N 148.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 21.5N 96.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.09.2024 21.5N 96.6W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041615