391 WTNT80 EGRR 071612 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2024 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 26.5N 93.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2024 26.5N 93.9W WEAK 00UTC 08.09.2024 25.9N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2024 23.9N 95.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2024 21.4N 94.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2024 20.8N 93.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2024 22.8N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2024 24.5N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2024 25.6N 93.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2024 27.8N 93.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2024 29.2N 91.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2024 31.5N 89.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2024 33.5N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2024 34.9N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2024 38.0N 85.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2024 39.7N 85.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.7N 78.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.09.2024 32.7N 78.3W WEAK 00UTC 08.09.2024 33.9N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.09.2024 36.4N 68.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.09.2024 39.7N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.0N 42.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.09.2024 13.0N 42.6W WEAK 00UTC 09.09.2024 14.1N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.09.2024 14.9N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.09.2024 15.3N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2024 15.9N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2024 16.4N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2024 16.8N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2024 17.0N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2024 17.3N 52.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2024 18.3N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2024 18.9N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2024 19.4N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2024 19.8N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 36.5N 16.8E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2024 37.1N 18.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2024 37.6N 21.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2024 39.5N 23.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2024 41.3N 24.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2024 42.8N 26.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2024 44.2N 27.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.0N 30.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2024 11.2N 30.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2024 11.5N 31.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2024 13.4N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2024 16.0N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2024 18.9N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2024 20.9N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2024 22.4N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2024 24.2N 46.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2024 26.1N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 18.5N 115.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2024 18.5N 115.8W WEAK 12UTC 14.09.2024 19.5N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 38.6N 44.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2024 38.6N 44.3W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071612