617 WTNT80 EGRR 240412 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.09.2024 HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 98.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2024 15.7N 98.9W MODERATE 12UTC 24.09.2024 17.0N 101.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2024 16.2N 102.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2024 16.2N 101.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2024 16.2N 102.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2024 16.1N 102.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 16.4N 102.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 16.6N 103.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 17.2N 103.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2024 18.2N 105.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2024 19.2N 107.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 20.3N 109.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 20.5N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 20.4N 113.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2024 20.8N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 81.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2024 18.1N 81.8W WEAK 12UTC 24.09.2024 19.7N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2024 19.8N 85.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2024 21.3N 86.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2024 22.9N 86.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2024 24.8N 86.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 28.1N 85.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 31.9N 84.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 37.0N 85.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 40.2N 90.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 36.7N 58.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.09.2024 36.1N 57.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2024 35.3N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 34.8N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 35.2N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 36.3N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2024 38.0N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2024 39.4N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 39.9N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 39.7N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.7N 19.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.09.2024 14.7N 19.7W WEAK 12UTC 26.09.2024 14.8N 22.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 15.5N 24.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 16.1N 26.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 16.6N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2024 16.9N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2024 17.5N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 19.8N 47.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2024 20.2N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2024 21.3N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 22.2N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 24.5N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 27.0N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 36.2N 29.8E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2024 35.8N 31.1E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240412