063 WTNT80 EGRR 250414 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.09.2024 TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 85.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2024 19.7N 85.3W MODERATE 12UTC 25.09.2024 21.1N 85.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2024 22.7N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2024 25.0N 85.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 28.7N 84.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 33.9N 83.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2024 38.1N 85.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 37.6N 88.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 36.4N 87.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 36.7N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 101.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2024 16.7N 101.7W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2024 16.2N 102.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2024 16.1N 102.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2024 15.7N 101.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 16.1N 101.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 16.7N 101.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 17.6N 102.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 37.3N 58.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2024 36.9N 57.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2024 36.4N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2024 36.3N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 36.1N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 37.3N 46.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2024 38.9N 42.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 41.0N 37.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 42.6N 31.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 44.2N 24.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 47.8N 15.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 53.9N 7.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2024 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 17.2N 48.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2024 17.3N 48.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 18.6N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 19.1N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 20.3N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 21.3N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 22.2N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 23.2N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 33.9N 179.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2024 33.9N 179.8W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2024 32.8N 178.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 33.1N 174.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 33.4N 172.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 33.5N 172.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 9.7N 29.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2024 9.9N 30.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2024 10.6N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250414