093 WTNT80 EGRR 251615 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.09.2024 TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 86.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2024 21.5N 86.2W MODERATE 00UTC 26.09.2024 23.1N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2024 25.5N 85.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 29.6N 83.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2024 35.6N 84.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2024 38.7N 86.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 36.9N 89.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 36.6N 89.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 36.4N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 31.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2024 14.0N 31.2W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 36.9N 57.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2024 36.9N 57.2W MODERATE 00UTC 26.09.2024 37.0N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2024 36.3N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 36.1N 51.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 36.7N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 38.3N 43.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 39.5N 39.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2024 41.0N 35.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 101.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2024 16.4N 101.7W MODERATE 00UTC 26.09.2024 16.3N 102.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2024 16.1N 102.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2024 16.5N 102.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 16.9N 102.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 18.0N 103.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.5N 48.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2024 17.5N 48.7W WEAK 12UTC 29.09.2024 18.6N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 19.7N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 20.6N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 22.5N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 24.7N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 28.1N 45.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 32.5N 41.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.8N 179.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2024 34.8N 179.2W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2024 34.2N 175.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 34.4N 172.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2024 35.1N 171.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 35.5N 172.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.1N 132.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2024 10.1N 132.7W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2024 10.2N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 10.5N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251615