077 WTNT80 EGRR 261614 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.09.2024 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 37.2N 52.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2024 37.2N 52.5W MODERATE 00UTC 27.09.2024 37.0N 50.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 36.7N 48.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 37.5N 44.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2024 39.0N 40.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 41.2N 37.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 42.8N 36.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 43.6N 35.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2024 44.8N 34.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2024 47.2N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 49.8N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 51.5N 35.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 53.0N 31.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2024 POST-TROPICAL HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 102.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2024 17.1N 102.6W MODERATE 00UTC 27.09.2024 16.9N 102.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 17.5N 102.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 85.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2024 24.7N 85.8W STRONG 00UTC 27.09.2024 28.6N 84.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2024 34.5N 83.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2024 37.9N 86.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 37.5N 87.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 37.6N 87.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 37.6N 87.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2024 37.2N 87.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 37.4N 87.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 37.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2024 15.5N 37.0W WEAK 00UTC 27.09.2024 16.1N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2024 17.0N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 17.2N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2024 17.6N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2024 17.5N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 18.2N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 18.9N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 19.2N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 18.9N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 17.8N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 17.0N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 16.6N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 17.0N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 17.7N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.8N 125.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2024 12.8N 125.4W WEAK 00UTC 30.09.2024 12.2N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 11.7N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 11.4N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 11.3N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 11.5N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 12.0N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 12.8N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 13.9N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 9.6N 34.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2024 9.7N 35.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2024 10.0N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 10.3N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 41.5N 17.6E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2024 42.7N 17.7E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261614