005 WTNT80 EGRR 270411 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2024 HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 84.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2024 28.7N 84.1W INTENSE 12UTC 27.09.2024 34.5N 83.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2024 38.1N 87.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 36.7N 87.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 37.2N 87.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 36.7N 87.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2024 36.2N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 36.2N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 37.0N 50.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2024 37.0N 50.6W MODERATE 12UTC 27.09.2024 37.2N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 38.3N 44.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2024 39.7N 40.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 41.4N 37.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 42.5N 36.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 43.4N 34.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 44.4N 31.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2024 45.8N 28.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2024 47.9N 27.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 50.5N 27.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 53.4N 27.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 103.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2024 17.3N 103.0W MODERATE 12UTC 27.09.2024 17.6N 102.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 40.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2024 16.0N 40.4W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2024 17.3N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2024 17.8N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2024 18.1N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2024 18.8N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 19.7N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 20.9N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 22.2N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 23.0N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 23.6N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 24.1N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.6N 35.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2024 15.6N 35.6W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2024 16.0N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 17.0N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 18.3N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 19.7N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 23.0N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 26.1N 46.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 30.5N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 34.4N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 10.3N 27.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2024 10.3N 27.7W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2024 9.7N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 9.5N 32.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 9.4N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 9.8N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 9.7N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 10.2N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 36.7N 64.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2024 36.5N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 36.1N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 35.2N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270411