255 WTNT80 EGRR 280411 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.09.2024 TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 105.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2024 20.1N 105.3W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.3N 86.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2024 38.3N 86.8W MODERATE 12UTC 28.09.2024 36.4N 87.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 37.3N 86.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 37.1N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 44.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2024 18.7N 44.1W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2024 19.2N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2024 19.7N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 20.5N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 21.0N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 21.4N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 21.4N 51.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 21.7N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 22.6N 52.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 23.6N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 24.0N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 38.0N 44.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2024 38.0N 44.5W MODERATE 12UTC 28.09.2024 39.7N 41.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2024 41.4N 38.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 42.7N 36.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 43.7N 34.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2024 45.0N 30.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2024 47.1N 28.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 49.4N 28.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2024 51.1N 29.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 52.5N 28.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 54.7N 26.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2024 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 28.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2024 12.9N 28.0W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2024 13.3N 31.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 13.9N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 15.0N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.1N 92.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2024 13.1N 92.7W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2024 13.3N 92.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 12.9N 92.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 13.6N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 14.0N 93.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 14.8N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.1N 45.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2024 16.1N 45.3W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2024 16.6N 46.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 17.8N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 19.2N 49.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 20.1N 51.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 20.5N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 37.5N 58.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2024 36.7N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280411