797 WTNT80 EGRR 300410 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.09.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 49.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2024 22.0N 49.5W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2024 22.3N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 23.2N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 24.5N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 26.8N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 29.7N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 34.5N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 40.4N 34.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 47.0N 25.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2024 53.8N 22.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 33.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2024 13.8N 33.0W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2024 14.1N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 14.0N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 15.0N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 15.7N 42.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 16.6N 44.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 17.7N 45.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 18.8N 48.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2024 19.7N 49.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 20.3N 50.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 21.8N 51.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 23.5N 51.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2024 26.7N 52.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2024 30.2N 51.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2024 34.1N 49.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 43.8N 34.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2024 43.8N 34.0W STRONG 12UTC 30.09.2024 44.6N 30.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2024 46.0N 25.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2024 47.4N 23.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2024 48.9N 21.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 50.6N 20.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 53.0N 20.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 54.6N 19.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.9N 28.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2024 11.0N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 10.8N 31.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 10.8N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 10.5N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 10.7N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 11.1N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 11.4N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 11.9N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 12.1N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 12.4N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.9N 133.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2024 14.2N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 14.7N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 15.3N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 15.6N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 34.1N 61.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2024 34.1N 61.4W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2024 32.5N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 31.5N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 14.5N 107.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2024 14.8N 107.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300410