060 WTNT80 EGRR 011610 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.10.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 99.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2024 15.3N 99.7W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.7N 25.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2024 10.7N 25.1W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2024 10.7N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 10.6N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 10.0N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 9.8N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 9.7N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 9.8N 33.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 10.1N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 10.3N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 11.1N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 12.2N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 14.1N 38.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 15.5N 41.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 16.8N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2024 17.6N 46.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 38.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2024 15.0N 38.9W MODERATE 00UTC 02.10.2024 16.1N 41.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 17.3N 42.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 18.5N 44.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 19.2N 45.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 20.3N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 21.4N 49.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 22.8N 50.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 25.0N 51.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2024 27.7N 51.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.10.2024 31.5N 50.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2024 35.8N 47.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2024 40.1N 43.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 43.2N 36.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2024 44.7N 29.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 25.2N 49.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2024 25.2N 49.4W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2024 27.7N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 30.6N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 34.1N 63.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2024 33.7N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 33.4N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 32.7N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 32.5N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 32.9N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 34.3N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.0N 135.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2024 14.2N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 14.9N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 15.3N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.4N 98.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2024 13.4N 98.7W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2024 13.6N 98.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 14.8N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 15.4N 101.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 15.9N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 16.3N 104.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 17.0N 105.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 18.0N 106.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 19.2N 107.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2024 19.8N 109.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 10.4N 15.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2024 10.6N 15.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011610