085 WTNT80 EGRR 021612 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.10.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 96.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2024 14.6N 96.7W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 28.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2024 10.8N 28.9W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2024 10.3N 29.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 9.7N 31.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 9.5N 32.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 9.4N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 9.2N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 9.1N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 10.0N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 11.4N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 12.8N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 14.5N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 16.2N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2024 17.7N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2024 18.8N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 20.3N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 96.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2024 14.6N 96.7W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2024 13.5N 95.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 42.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2024 17.9N 42.4W MODERATE 00UTC 03.10.2024 19.4N 44.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2024 20.4N 45.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 21.6N 46.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 22.8N 48.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 24.2N 50.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2024 26.4N 51.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2024 29.5N 50.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.10.2024 33.3N 49.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 36.9N 45.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 40.6N 40.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 43.4N 33.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2024 44.5N 26.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2024 43.8N 18.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2024 47.5N 5.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 34.7N 65.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2024 34.3N 64.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.10.2024 33.5N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 34.0N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 33.1N 61.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 33.1N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 33.5N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 34.4N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.8N 135.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2024 14.0N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 14.5N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 14.8N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 16.7N 106.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2024 16.5N 105.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.10.2024 17.5N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 18.6N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2024 19.2N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2024 19.8N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 20.6N 110.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 12.5N 25.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2024 13.6N 27.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 30.6N 68.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2024 30.6N 68.8W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021612