730 WTNT80 EGRR 030413 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.10.2024 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5N 29.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2024 10.5N 29.7W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2024 10.2N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 9.7N 31.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 9.7N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 9.7N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 9.8N 35.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 11.0N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 12.8N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 14.7N 37.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 16.6N 39.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 18.2N 41.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2024 19.4N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2024 20.4N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 21.6N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 22.5N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 44.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2024 19.4N 44.3W INTENSE 12UTC 03.10.2024 20.4N 45.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2024 21.6N 46.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2024 23.0N 48.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 24.4N 50.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 26.4N 51.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2024 29.5N 50.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2024 32.9N 49.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 36.6N 46.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 40.1N 40.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 42.5N 33.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2024 43.4N 24.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2024 44.8N 13.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2024 49.5N 4.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2024 51.6N 0.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 95.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2024 13.9N 95.6W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2024 14.0N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 14.0N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 14.7N 95.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.5N 62.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2024 34.5N 62.2W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2024 33.7N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 33.0N 61.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 32.1N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 32.3N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 31.6N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 31.4N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.3N 134.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2024 13.6N 134.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2024 14.0N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 14.4N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 14.8N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 15.8N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 38.9N 68.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2024 39.3N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2024 40.5N 63.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 44.1N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 47.5N 63.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.1N 17.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2024 12.1N 17.0W WEAK 00UTC 09.10.2024 13.7N 19.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 14.6N 22.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 15.7N 24.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030413