249 WTNT80 EGRR 031613 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.10.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 94.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2024 13.9N 94.9W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2024 14.6N 94.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 30.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2024 10.2N 30.7W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2024 10.0N 31.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 10.0N 32.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 9.7N 33.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 10.0N 34.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 11.1N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 12.3N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 14.2N 36.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 16.0N 38.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 17.8N 40.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2024 19.5N 42.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2024 20.9N 44.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 22.1N 45.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 22.7N 47.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2024 22.8N 48.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 45.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2024 20.2N 45.5W INTENSE 00UTC 04.10.2024 21.1N 47.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2024 22.4N 48.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 23.9N 50.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2024 26.0N 50.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 29.5N 50.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2024 33.6N 49.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 37.5N 46.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 41.3N 40.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 43.8N 33.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2024 44.4N 24.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.10.2024 46.4N 11.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2024 47.9N 3.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 52.0N 6.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2024 54.6N 12.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 134.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2024 13.5N 134.3W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2024 14.1N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 14.5N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 14.8N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.3N 61.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2024 34.3N 61.4W WEAK 00UTC 04.10.2024 33.4N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 33.1N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 32.1N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 31.7N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 31.2N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.1N 22.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2024 14.5N 23.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2024 15.1N 26.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2024 16.7N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 30.3N 71.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2024 30.3N 71.3W WEAK 12UTC 10.10.2024 30.3N 69.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031613