751 WTNT80 EGRR 040409 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.10.2024 TROPICAL STORM 11E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 94.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2024 14.4N 94.7W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 9.7N 31.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2024 9.7N 31.7W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2024 10.0N 32.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 10.0N 33.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 10.0N 34.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 11.0N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 12.2N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 13.7N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 15.0N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 16.7N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2024 18.2N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2024 19.5N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 20.9N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 21.7N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2024 22.5N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2024 23.6N 52.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 47.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2024 21.1N 47.1W INTENSE 12UTC 04.10.2024 22.5N 48.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2024 24.0N 50.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 26.4N 50.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 29.8N 50.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2024 33.4N 49.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2024 37.2N 45.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 41.0N 41.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 43.5N 35.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2024 43.9N 28.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.10.2024 43.0N 19.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2024 44.3N 9.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2024 47.8N 2.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2024 51.4N 12.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2024 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 134.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2024 13.0N 134.5W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2024 13.7N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 14.2N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.5N 60.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2024 33.5N 60.4W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2024 32.8N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 32.2N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 32.0N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 32.0N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.3N 17.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.10.2024 13.6N 18.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.10.2024 14.8N 20.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 15.9N 23.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2024 16.9N 25.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2024 18.9N 27.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 38.9N 55.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.10.2024 40.5N 53.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040409