824 WTNT80 EGRR 041610 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2024 HURRICANE KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 48.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2024 22.6N 48.8W INTENSE 00UTC 05.10.2024 24.1N 49.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 26.7N 50.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2024 30.0N 50.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 33.6N 49.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 36.9N 45.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 40.5N 40.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 42.8N 33.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2024 43.3N 25.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.10.2024 43.1N 14.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2024 46.5N 4.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 52.2N 5.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2024 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 9.9N 32.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2024 9.9N 32.8W MODERATE 00UTC 05.10.2024 10.1N 34.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 10.4N 35.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 11.1N 36.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 12.2N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 13.4N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 14.4N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2024 15.7N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2024 17.3N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2024 18.2N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 19.4N 49.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 20.0N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2024 21.0N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2024 21.7N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2024 22.7N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 134.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2024 13.1N 134.1W WEAK 00UTC 05.10.2024 13.9N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.6N 60.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2024 32.6N 60.9W WEAK 00UTC 05.10.2024 31.5N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 31.1N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 30.2N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 23.8N 90.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2024 23.8N 90.2W WEAK 00UTC 08.10.2024 23.6N 89.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2024 25.0N 86.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2024 25.0N 84.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 26.7N 80.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 27.1N 78.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2024 29.3N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.2N 16.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2024 12.7N 17.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2024 13.2N 21.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2024 13.8N 24.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 14.5N 27.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2024 15.2N 30.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2024 16.1N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2024 17.2N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.5N 106.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.10.2024 17.5N 106.4W WEAK 12UTC 09.10.2024 18.7N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2024 19.0N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2024 20.2N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 31.4N 66.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2024 31.4N 66.4W WEAK 12UTC 10.10.2024 29.3N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2024 29.8N 67.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2024 32.3N 58.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 26.3N 74.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.10.2024 26.3N 74.9W WEAK 12UTC 11.10.2024 25.9N 73.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041610