111 
WTNT80 EGRR 110411

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.11.2024

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAFAEL     ANALYSED POSITION : 25.9N  90.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182024

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 11.11.2024  25.9N  90.5W     WEAK
 12UTC 11.11.2024  26.9N  90.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.11.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 :  9.7N 115.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 13.11.2024   9.7N 115.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 13.11.2024  10.2N 115.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.11.2024  10.7N 115.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.11.2024  10.6N 115.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.11.2024  11.0N 115.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.11.2024  12.0N 115.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.11.2024  12.9N 115.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.11.2024  13.6N 116.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.11.2024  13.9N 116.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.11.2024  14.4N 114.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.11.2024  14.8N 111.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 :  9.8N 130.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 15.11.2024   9.7N 130.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 15.11.2024   9.8N 131.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.11.2024   9.7N 132.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.11.2024   9.4N 134.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.11.2024   9.3N 136.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.11.2024   9.1N 138.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.11.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.7N  81.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.11.2024  15.7N  81.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 16.11.2024  14.6N  81.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.11.2024  15.4N  80.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.11.2024  15.3N  80.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 17.11.2024  15.4N  80.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 18.11.2024  15.8N  81.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 110411