825 
WTNT80 EGRR 171610

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.11.2024

        TROPICAL STORM SARA       ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N  87.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192024

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.11.2024  17.0N  87.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 18.11.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.3N 114.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 19.11.2024  10.3N 114.4W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 20.11.2024  10.4N 114.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 20.11.2024  10.8N 114.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.11.2024  11.4N 115.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2024  11.9N 117.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 38.9N  75.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 21.11.2024  40.0N  73.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 22.11.2024  41.1N  72.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 22.11.2024  40.6N  72.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.11.2024  40.1N  66.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.11.2024  42.7N  60.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 24.11.2024  45.3N  56.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.11.2024  46.4N  52.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 171610