000
AXNT20 KNHC 252316
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea at 10.5N14.5W and continues southwestward to 02.5N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 02.5N23W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44.5W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 05N between
10W and 27.5W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 03.5N between
31W and 50W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure over the west Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward
across Georgia and N Florida and into the NE Gulf. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds continue across much of the southeastern Gulf
and Straits of Florida, where seas are 4 to 6 ft and possible to 7
ft in the Florida Current. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail
across much of the western Gulf where seas are also 4 to 6 ft. Gentle
to moderate SE winds prevail elsewhere across the Gulf waters,
with seas around 3 ft. Stable conditions aloft across the basin
are producing mostly fair skies across the entire basin, except
for a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms exiting extreme
western Cuba and moving NW into the waters north of the Yucatan
Channel.
For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters the this weekend into early next week supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to
fresh to strong speeds over the east and central Bay of Campeche
through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh
speeds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida
through the period due to prevalent high pressure NE of the area.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough continues across the E Caribbean waters, from
Isla Margarita off of Venezuela northward across the extreme
northwestern Leeward Islands and into the Atlantic near 23N60W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within
300 nm either side of the trough, while scattered thunderstorms
have developed S of the trough over Venezuela. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail across much of the Caribbean waters with seas of
2-4 ft. Fresh trade winds prevail across the south central
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, where seas are 4 to 6 ft,
Fresh E winds are also occurring in the lee of Cuba , where seas
are 3-4 ft.
For the forecast, a second surface trough across the Atlantic
north of the Mona Passage is reducing the pressure gradient
between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low,
and will support fresh to locally strong trade winds offshore
Colombia through early Sat. However, winds elsewhere across east
and central portions of the basin will be slightly lower than
normal through the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
expected in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through
Tue night. Slight to moderate seas will prevail into early next
week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive
1028 mb high pressure centered just east of the Azores. The ridge
is weakened by a pair of surface troughs, one from the NE coast of
Hispaniola to near 30N58W, and the second across the eastern
Caribbean to near 23N60W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are in the vicinity and east of these troughs, from
18N northward between 50W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are west of the
troughs to 73W then become fresh E winds across the Bahamas and
into S and central Florida waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this
zone. East of the troughs, mostly fresh NE to E winds prevail
east of 50W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Between 50W and the
Caribbean trough, gentle to moderate E to SE winds generally
prevail, with seas of 5 to 6 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high
pressure over the NW Atlantic and a surface trough to the N of
the Mona Passage will continue to support fresh to locally strong
NE winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through
tonight. The trough will remain generally stationary and weaken
through Sun. A frontal boundary will clip the northern forecast
waters between 55W and 65W on Sat, bringing fresh to strong E
winds and seas to around 8 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front may
move southward, between Florida and 65W, late Sunday into Monday
followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds.
$$
Stripling
