000
AXNT20 KNHC 010324
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Apr 1 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea near 11N15W and southwestward to near 03N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03S30W to near coast of Brazil
at 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 03N
between 05W and 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The tail end of a mid to upper level trough is moving through the
northeastern Gulf, supporting a small area of showers and
thunderstorms near 26.5N86W. All remaining thunderstorm activity
has moved east of the basin. A stationary front extends over the
Sabine Pass area in the far northwest Gulf. The standard evening
trough is forming over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic
across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh winds with 4 to 6 ft seas along the
northern western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, but mostly
gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf.
Platforms over the northwestern and north-central Gulf are again
indicating areas of sea fog, with visibility of 2 to 5 miles.
For the forecast, the surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is
expected to move westward through the Bay of Campeche tonight,
promoting fresh SE to NE winds over the region into early Tue. A
similar pattern is expected Tue night. Elsewhere, fresh to strong
SE to S winds will develop Tue night across much of the basin
west of 85W, as the pressure gradient tightens between building
high pressure in the western Atlantic and strengthening low
pressure in the south-central United States. Building rough seas
of 8 to 11 ft are expected in this region Wed morning through late
week. East of 85W, moderate SE winds Tue night will strengthen to
fresh to locally strong speeds Wed into Thu, including through
the Florida Straits. Areas of dense sea fog reducing visibility
to 1 nm or less may form tonight along some sections of the Texas
and Florida coasts while patchy fog may form near the
southwestern Louisiana coast.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the
area and a 1007 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of
80W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found over the western
Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail east of 80W, with seas in the
4-6 ft range west of 80W.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas
will pulse each night and morning offshore of Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela through Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to
near- gale force Wed into this weekend as the pressure gradient
strengthens between the Colombian low and high pressure building
over the western Atlantic. Very rough seas will be possible with
these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are slated to pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras through Tue, before winds increase to near-
gale force speeds and rough seas develop for the second half of
the week. Large E swell will continue to impact the Tropical
Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week,
maintaining rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds,
with strong pulses, are expected across the remainder of the
Caribbean through midweek, before widespread fresh to strong winds
and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into the upcoming weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Thunderstorms associated with a mid level short wave trough moving
across the southeastern United States are regenerating over the
Gulf Stream, resulting in a squall line moving off the coast of
northeast Florida. Farther east, broad high pressure dominates
the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1033 mb high center that
is located over the north- central Atlantic near 37N46W. The
associated gradient supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and
7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. A cold
front is moving through the central Atlantic into the eastern
Atlantic is just reaching 30N between 35W and 50W. No significant
weather is occurring with this front. Winds are 20 kt or less
near the front, however, seas of 8 ft in long- period north swell
follow the front. In the eastern part of the area, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east of
about 40W. Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft
are present elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas will pulse each night and morning offshore of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue. Winds are expected to
strengthen to near- gale force Wed into this weekend as the
pressure gradient strengthens between the Colombian low and high
pressure building over the western Atlantic. Very rough seas will
be possible with these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are
slated to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue, before winds
increase to near- gale force speeds and rough seas develop for the
second half of the week. Large E swell will continue to impact
the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the
week, maintaining rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade
winds, with strong pulses, are expected across the remainder of
the Caribbean through midweek, before widespread fresh to strong
winds and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into the upcoming
weekend.
$$
Christensen
