909
AXNT20 KNHC 180540
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Apr 18 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just
south of Dakar, then curves southwestward to 03N22W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 03N22W across 00N33W to 02N44W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring up to 200 nm
along either side of the ITCZ west of 28W, and near the monsoon
trough from 02N to 06N between 10W and 22W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1021 mb high at the
northeastern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 1 to 3 ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to
locally strong ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the
northwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate
with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse offshore of
the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche through
this weekend as a trough develops daily and moves westward.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds will develop west of
90W tonight as a low pressure system strengthens in the central
United States. By Fri, fresh to locally strong SE winds are
expected across much of the Gulf, including through the Florida
Straits, as the pressure gradient strengthens between the
aforementioned low and building high pressure over the western
Atlantic. Seas will slowly build through this weekend, with rough
seas possible near the strong winds by early Sat. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will slowly diminish next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A fair trade-wind pattern continues across the entire Caribbean
Basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are
present at the south-central basin. Fresh to locally strong NE
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist at the lee of Cuba, and near the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft
are found across the north-central and southeastern basin,
including the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and
seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.
For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will
support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western
Caribbean into early next week, including the Windward Passage and
south of Cuba. Near-gale force winds are likely to pulse off
Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas.
Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages in
the northeastern Caribbean by Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas
will diminish starting Tue night as the high pressure north of the
area weakens.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda
across 31N62W to 27N71W. Patchy showers are noted up to 90 nm
along either side of this feature. Farther south, a surface
trough reaches northeastward from near the Mona Passage to beyond
31N55W. Aided by divergent flow related to a pronounce upper-
level trough near 68W, scattered moderate convection is flaring
up north of 19N between 57W and 65W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found from
the stationary front to 29N between 63W and 75W. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas dominate north of
20N and west of 55W. A surface ridge stretches southwestward from
a 1032 mb high at the north-central Atlantic across 31N41W to just
east of the Leeward Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds are
evident north of 27N between 35W and 55W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 04N to 27N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles,
moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ESE winds and seas at
6 to 8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will resume drifting southeastward later tonight through Fri as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front. A tightening
pressure gradient between these two features will support
increasing strong NE to E winds and rough seas this weekend from
the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas will slowly
diminish west of 65W early next week. Looking ahead, a complex low
pressure system may develop in the central Atlantic this weekend,
producing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas surrounding the
low, east of 65W.
$$
Chan
