000
AXNT20 KNHC 280507
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Apr 28 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 14N17W to
08N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S42W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either side of the
ITCZ.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf this afternoon,
anchored by 1019 mb high pressure centered across the
northeastern Gulf. Weak troughs are analyzed along the west coast
of the Florida peninsula, and over the Bay of Campeche in the
southwest Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to
SE winds across most of the basin, except light and variable
northeast portions. Wave heights are 2 ft or less in the northeast
Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. No shower or thunderstorm activity
is noted at this time across the entire basin as stable
atmospheric conditions prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
basin through at least the mid-week supporting gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to
strong speeds each evening over the east and central Bay of
Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects related
to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds
and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida Mon night
through Wed night as high pressure located NE of Florida
strengthens. By Monday night, southeast winds are forecast to
increase over the western Gulf and persist through mid-week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad mid to upper trough reaches from the western Atlantic,
across Cuba and the northwest Caribbean to Honduras and Nicaragua.
Divergent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough continues
to support deep-layered moisture across the central and eastern
Caribbean enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Drier conditions are noted over the northwest Caribbean,
under the influence of the northern flow aloft west of the trough.
At the surface, the pattern is influenced by relatively weak 1019
mb high pressure NW of the area. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin along with 2 to
4 ft seas, except fresh NE winds off Colombia, and moderate to
fresh E-NE winds in the lee of Cuba. Recent altimeter data shows
seas of 5 to 7 ft off of Colombia.
For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin
combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds
at night in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore
Colombia, with moderate trades elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds
will pulse to strong in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward
Passage, as high pressure north of the area strengthens.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Weak surface ridging prevails across the western Atlantic ahead od
a stationary front the extends along 31N and W of 75W. To the
east, a persistent broad surface trough extends along 64W from 20N
and 28N. Marine conditions continue to gradually improve across
the waters west of the trough, with gentle or weaker winds and
seas 5 ft or less W of the trough. Divergent flow aloft is
assisting the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms
east of the trough mainly between 58W and 66W and N of 21N.
Farther east, a stationary front is analyzed along 29N between
30W-51W. Strong high pressure prevails north of the front across
the N central Atlantic. This pattern is supporting gentle to
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas W of 60W, and moderate to fresh
NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in N to NE swell E of 65W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will drift
eastward as a cold front moves across the waters east of northern
Florida to near 71W, reaching from near 31N62W to NE Florida by
Mon morning, from 31N57W to the NW Bahamas by Tue morning, and
from near 31N55W to the central Bahamas Tue evening before
weakening. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and moderate
to rough seas will follow the front. High pressure in the wake of
the front will dominate most of the forecast waters for remainder
of the week.
$$
ERA
