415
AXNT20 KNHC 251614
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal at 12N16W and continues southwestward to 02N23W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N23W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from the equator north to 04N and east of 20W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure over the west Atlantic extends a ridge across the
Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail across the Gulf waters,
with 4-6 ft seas. E winds in the Straits of Florida are moderate
to fresh. Locally fresh winds are also noted along the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters the this weekend into early next week supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to
fresh to strong speeds over the east and central Bay of Campeche
through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh
speeds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida
through the period due to prevalent high pressure NE of the area.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough passes through the E Caribbean waters, from near
Anguilla to Caracas, Venezuela. Scattered showers are in the
vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across
the Caribbean waters with seas of 3-6 ft. In the south-central
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, NE winds are pulsing to fresh
speeds.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with
the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong trade winds
offshore Colombia through early Sat. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are expected in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba
through Tue night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive
1029 mb high pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of
the Azores and its associated ridge. The ridge is weakened by a
pair of surface troughs located just NNE of Puerto Rico. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of these troughs. Fresh NE winds are
north of 27N between 60W and 66W. Seas peak to 8 ft in these
winds. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail across the
remainder of the Atlantic, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high
pressure over the NW Atlantic and a surface trough to the N of
Puerto Rico will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE
winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through tonight.
Looking ahead, a cold front may move southward, between Florida
and 65W, late Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N
to NE winds.
$$
Mahoney
