000
AXNT20 KNHC 140559
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Mar 14 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea, Africa near 10N14W and continues southwestward to the
Equator at 21W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to below the
Equator to near the coast of Brazil. Numerous large clusters of
strong convection are inland Africa extending offshore to 02N
between 01W and 12W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is concentrated south of the Equator to 03S between
33W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Relatively weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward to the
eastern Gulf. A weak trough is over the southeastern Gulf
extending from near 25N84W to across the lower Florida Keys.
No significant convection is occurring with the trough.
Otherwise, the gradient in place is allowing for gentle to
moderate southeast to southwest winds over the basin, except for
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds near the northern
Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the range of 1-3 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 2-4 ft in NW Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic to the eastern Gulf will continue to shift eastward
through tonight as low pressure continue to build over the
remainder basin ahead of the next front. Southerly gentle to
moderate winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds across
the western Gulf tonight and expand to the remaining basin Fri.
Southerly winds will further increase to fresh to strong speeds
Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf
Sat morning. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to
the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning and move E of the Gulf Mon
morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the
northern basin Mon night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weakening frontal boundary extends from the central Atlantic
southwestward to over eastern Puerto Rico southwestward to
17N70W. A rather weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for
gentle to moderate trade winds for most locations of the basin,
except for fresh to strong northeast trade winds offshore
Colombia and Venezuela, and mostly fresh trade winds elsewhere
south of 16N between 67W and 78W. Seas range from 4-7 ft over
the sout-central Caribbean to lower seas of 2-4 ft elsewhere.
Isolated showers moving westward with the trade winds are
possible over sections of the eastern Caribbean, and also near
Puerto and Jamaica. Otherwise, no significant convection is
occurring across the basin.
For the forecast, the weakening frontal boundary will dissipate
Fri. Moderate northwest swell will continue to impact the
Atlantic passages through Fri morning. High pressure northeast
of the Bahamas will shift slowly northeastward through Sun night,
with its associated gradient supporting pulsing fresh to strong
trades off NW Colombia, and moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic.
Similar winds will pulse off eastern Honduras, becoming fresh to
strong southeast to south winds Fri night through early Sun. A
cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Mon morning, with
increasing winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to
reach from eastern Cuba to northeastern Honduras by Tue morning,
and from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N44W
southwestward to 25N52W and to 21N59W, where it transitions into
a stationary frontal boundary to eastern Puerto Rico. Relatively
weak high pressure is west of the front. Fresh to strong southwest
winds are ahead of the front north of about 27N and reaching east
to near 40W. Seas with these winds are 8-12 ft. Fresh to strong
northwest to north winds are west of the front to near 57W along
with seas of 8-12 ft in west to northwest swell while moderate to
fresh north to northeast winds are elsewhere west of the front to
near 67W along with seas of 5-7 ft. Lower seas of 3 ft or less
are in the vicinity of the Bahamas.
satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection, in patches,
ahead of the front north of 26N and reaching eastward to a line
from 31N32W to 26N40W. This activity is being enhanced by a deep-
layer trough that is in the vicinity of the cold front.
In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb high center is analyzed at
28N43W. High pressure covers the eastern Atlantic north of 11N and
east of the above described cold front. Fresh to strong northwest
to north winds are north of 26N and east of 21W. Seas with these
winds are 9-12 ft in northwest swell. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are elsewhere north of 19N and east of 25N, with
seas of 7-9 ft in northwest swell. Elsewhere, northeast to east
trade winds are of gentle to moderate speeds. Seas are observed
to be generally 4-6 ft with these winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, the seas of 8-12 ft that are behind
the aforementioned central Atlantic cold front will shift eastward
through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east
through Fri as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in
the wake of the front. Winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong
speeds again north of 22N and east of the Bahamas this weekend as
the pressure gradient tightens between the remnants of the front
and strong high pressure to the north. These winds will support
building rough seas across E of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a
strong cold front will push off the southeastern United States
coast early Mon, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds.
The front is expected to reach a position from near 31N70W to the
southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Tue morning.
$$
Aguirre
