000
AXNT20 KNHC 162304
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Meteo-France Gale Warning: Meteo-France forecasts gale-force N to
NE winds offshore Agadir now through 17/00 UTC. Rough to very
rough seas will likely accompany these winds. For more details,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website https://wwwmiws.wmo.int.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends SW to
03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00S46W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 01S to 04N between 07W and
16W, and from 04S to 04N between 20W and 48W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from Marco Island to 27N92W while a surface
ridge continue to build over the western half of the Gulf in the
wake of it. The related gradient between the ridge and the front is
producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow throughout
the area, except for locally fresh NNE winds off the W Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are slight basin-wide.
For the forecast, the cold front will continue southward through
early Thu producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow
throughout the area into early Thu. Changes will be upcoming as
low pressure begins to deepen in the Plains on Thu, and while a
broad area of stronger high pressure builds west-southwestward
toward the northern Gulf. The resultant gradient is expected to
develop fresh to strong east to southeast winds along with mostly
rough seas across the western half of the Gulf starting late Thu
night. These winds will expand in coverage starting Fri covering
most of the basin by Fri, including the Straits of Florida and
Yucatan Channel. Winds will begin to diminish Sun. Elsewhere,
pulsing fresh to strong northeast winds are expected each afternoon
and night offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern
Bay of Campeche as a trough develops each day and migrates
westward.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The Caribbean is under the influence of a Gulf of America ridge
that extends to the NW Caribbean and the central Atlantic ridge
that extends to the northern waters of the remainder basin. The
pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and a 1006 mb
low over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE winds
offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds elsewhere. Seas are slight over the NW
Caribbean, moderate over the central and eastern waters, and rough
to 8 ft over the basin.
For the forecast, strong to near-gale force northeast winds and
rough seas are expected offshore of Colombia each night and
morning through this weekend, then fresh to strong winds early
next week. In the Gulf of Venezuela, pulsing strong winds are
expected through Sat, then winds at mostly fresh speeds afterward.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will
prevail over the basin through Thu, then begin to expand in
coverage for the rest of the period.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on gale-
force winds offshore of Agadir and rough to very rough seas near
the Canary Islands.
A stationary extends from 31N45W southwestward to 24N60W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are located near the tail of
the front S of 27N between the southern Bahamas and 60W. A cold
front extends from 31N69W to southern Florida near 26N80W. Winds
ahead and behind these fronts are moderate or weaker and seas
slight to moderate. The remainder of the tropical and subtropical
Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 high pressure system centered
near 32N22W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in the tropics support moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and moderate seas across the vast majority of the basin,
especially west of 23W. Otherwise, extending from the gales in the
Agadir region, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft are
ongoing between the NW coast of Africa and the Canary Islands,
extending as far south as 19N and E of 23W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N65W to the central Bahamas and Straits of Florida early Thu
and from near 31N61W to the central Bahamas by Thu evening. The
front will then become stationary over the eastern part of the
area during the upcoming weekend as a large area of high pressure
builds in behind it, with the parent high center to be located
near 31N72W. A tightening pressure gradient between the high
pressure and the front is expected to develop fresh to strong
northeast to east winds behind the front south of about 26N
starting Fri. These winds will expand in coverage going into the
weekend. Seas east and northeast of the Bahamas will become rough
beginning Fri. Winds and seas diminish over the southern part of
the area early next week. Low pressure may possibly drop southward
near 55W Mon and Mon night, with associated fresh to strong north
winds and rough seas impacting some of the eastern zones.
$$
Ramos
